The pattern is forming
The 2026 Mets entered the season as World Series favorites. They had the second-highest payroll in baseball. They had Juan Soto, signed to the largest contract in professional sports history, entering year two. They signed Marcus Semien ($156M) and traded for Devin Williams to close. The expectation was explicit: championship.
It is May. Semien is hitting .198. Williams has a 5.40 ERA. They just got swept by the Miami Marlins — a team rebuilding, a team with one-quarter their payroll, a team the data has identified as the franchise's specific nemesis across three separate documented elimination events.
The sweep is not, by itself, the story. Teams get swept. It happens. The story is the shape of the early season — the shape the model recognizes because it has seen it before. Three times before. In 2007. In 2008. In 2025.
What the model sees
The Curse Probability Preview is not predicting a collapse. It is calculating the probability that the conditions for collapse exist. Those conditions are:
1. High payroll (✓ — 97th percentile)
2. High pre-season expectations (✓ — WS favorites)
3. Concentration risk in key signings (✓ — Semien struggling, Williams struggling)
4. Historical pattern match (✓ — Marlins involvement, early frustration)
5. September schedule with elimination opponent (✓ — 6 games vs. MIA in Sept)
Five of five conditions are present. The model outputs 73.2%. The model is not always right. But the model has never been wrong when all five conditions are present simultaneously. The sample size is small. The pattern is not.
"It is May. The Marlins have already swept them. The model does not believe in curses. The model believes in patterns. The pattern is forming."
What happens next
This page is a living document. It will update as the 2026 season progresses. If the Mets contend and make the playoffs, this page will document that too — noting that the model's 73.2% still allowed for a 26.8% chance of normalcy.
If the pattern completes — if September brings another collapse, if the Marlins are somehow involved, if the payroll-to-performance gap widens into something the MMI can score — this page becomes a chapter. It receives a number. It joins the leaderboard.
If it scores above 91, it takes the #2 slot. If it scores above 98 — if it somehow exceeds the 2025 Mets, the highest-scoring entry in platform history — then a new question emerges: can this franchise produce a perfect 100?
The model says 73.2%. The Marlins are on the schedule. The payroll is $340 million. Marcus Semien is hitting .198. It is May.
Oh shit. Here we go.