Vol. LXIV
Can't Anybody Here Play This Game A Documented Curse · cantanybodyhereplaythisgame.report
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MMI Case File · Entry #01 · Curse Era · 2025 Season

The $765 Million Question

They spent the most money in the history of professional sports contracts. They still missed the playoffs. The Marlins were waiting.

Filed
October 06, 2025
Status
CONFIRMED · Elias Sports Bureau
Eliminator
Miami Marlins (3rd occurrence)
Final out
F-7 · 116 mph laser · P. Alonso
Last word
"We had a good first half." — M. Mendoza
MMI
98/100
Record at peak (Jun 13)
4524
Best in baseball
Record from Jun 13
3855
4th worst in MLB
Playoff probability peak
96.2%
0.2 short of 2007's max
Trailing after 8 innings
070
A perfect zero
Figure 1 · Three Curves · Same Diamond
The Three-Collapse Overlay · Figure 1

Three Septembers, one shape.

Playoff-probability curves for the 2007, 2008, and 2025 Mets, plotted day-by-day across the regular season. Different rosters. Different managers. Same shape. The 2025 curve peaks earlier — and falls farther.
2007 2008 2025
2007 · MMI 87/100
Peaked Sep 12, eliminated Game 162. The original 99.8% collapse.
2008 · MMI 91/100
Peaked Aug 28, lost Shea Stadium's final game to the Marlins.
2025 · MMI 98/100
Peaked Jun 13 — earliest peak, longest fall. Soto: .921 OPS.

The peak, the descent, and the laser

On June 13, 2025, the Mets woke up with the best record in baseball at 45–24. Their playoff odds, per FanGraphs, sat at 96.2%. They carried the second-highest payroll in the sport. Juan Soto, signed in December to the largest contract in professional sports history, was performing exactly as contracted: .263/.396/.921, on a pace for 43 home runs and 105 RBI.

From June 13 onward, the Mets went 38–55. Only the Rockies, the Nationals, the Twins, and the White Sox were worse over the same span. Those clubs' playoff hopes had died in May. The Mets had to descend from a real height to join them.

Statcast note · Game 162
On the season's final day, Pete Alonso barreled the hardest-hit ball the Mets had recorded all year — a 116.3 mph line drive into left field, expected batting average of .870. Javier Sanoja, a 25-year-old utility infielder making his sixth career appearance in the outfield, caught it on the run. Three outs from elimination. The eliminator was Miami.

The Soto Paradox, formalized

If the highest-paid player in professional sports history performed exactly as expected, and the team still collapsed, where did the $340 million payroll go? We build the answer from documented roster decisions, documented injuries, and documented pitching-staff construction choices. The answer is a front-office document, not a curse document — but the timing is the curse's signature on a front-office failure: the June peak, the September collapse, the Marlins, the final day.

"The 2025 Mets are the most Mets team in the history of the franchise. They are two points from a perfect score."

MMI Methodology Note · §4.2 · Confidence: High

What a perfect 100 would require

The 2025 Mets score 98. The two missing points represent the gap between what happened and what a perfect Metsy score would require. A perfect 100 would have demanded the highest payroll in baseball (not the second-highest), a 99.8% playoff probability at peak (not 96.2%), and a 116-mph laser caught in foul territory (not in left field).

They were close. They are usually close. The MMI does not measure how bad a Mets team was; it measures how thoroughly that team embodied the specific, documented, historically consistent pattern of being the Mets. By that measure, the 2025 Mets are the most successful failure the franchise has ever produced.