The peak, the descent, and the laser
On June 13, 2025, the Mets woke up with the best record in baseball at 45–24. Their playoff odds, per FanGraphs, sat at 96.2%. They carried the second-highest payroll in the sport. Juan Soto, signed in December to the largest contract in professional sports history, was performing exactly as contracted: .263/.396/.921, on a pace for 43 home runs and 105 RBI.
From June 13 onward, the Mets went 38–55. Only the Rockies, the Nationals, the Twins, and the White Sox were worse over the same span. Those clubs' playoff hopes had died in May. The Mets had to descend from a real height to join them.
The Soto Paradox, formalized
If the highest-paid player in professional sports history performed exactly as expected, and the team still collapsed, where did the $340 million payroll go? We build the answer from documented roster decisions, documented injuries, and documented pitching-staff construction choices. The answer is a front-office document, not a curse document — but the timing is the curse's signature on a front-office failure: the June peak, the September collapse, the Marlins, the final day.
"The 2025 Mets are the most Mets team in the history of the franchise. They are two points from a perfect score."
What a perfect 100 would require
The 2025 Mets score 98. The two missing points represent the gap between what happened and what a perfect Metsy score would require. A perfect 100 would have demanded the highest payroll in baseball (not the second-highest), a 99.8% playoff probability at peak (not 96.2%), and a 116-mph laser caught in foul territory (not in left field).
They were close. They are usually close. The MMI does not measure how bad a Mets team was; it measures how thoroughly that team embodied the specific, documented, historically consistent pattern of being the Mets. By that measure, the 2025 Mets are the most successful failure the franchise has ever produced.